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dpack



Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 43434
Location: yes
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 23 5:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

pps plugging the steamer into it seems daft, it does demonstrate that it can act as energy storage as well as the end user

that is useful

jema
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 27736
Location: escaped from Swindon
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 23 6:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

BYD are the dark horse, they will probably be selling more BEVs than Tesla by the end of the year.
They are vertically integrated, producing both their own batteries and their own chips.
The preceding video is what they can sell for £12,000 at a profit whilst lithium prices are high and we are still very much in the investment phase of things.
I have previously been saying that legacy auto will need a bailout, but I reckon would be able to survive due to all their existing factories and trained workforces.
The more I read about things like Toyotas 200 billion dollar debt and the slow swivel of the auto industry, the more I think I was wrong.
The CEO of BFD apparently has a catch phrase "less talking, more doing"!
Toyota did a PR thing recently showing off 20 new EV models, but they are all concepts...

Treacodactyl
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 25795
Location: Jumping on the bandwagon of opportunism
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 23 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

tahir wrote:
Treacodactyl wrote:
A bit more digging shows up far more placing stating that realistically many people will need to go 3 phase due to electric demands for heating and EVs.


Not sure why that would be, we have 2 EVs and no issues.


There's plenty of reasons. When I was office based it was common for couples to each travel in excess of 100 miles daily and if we were forced to do that again I'd want two 7kw chargers. All it takes would be a top end electric shower and you're around 100A without considering anything else.

22kw chargers are also mentioned and for future proofing probably worth considering for some.

Hopefully we could get away with a 7kw charger for an EV but with the demonisation of firewood I would need to allow for electric heating. Our fire is 16kw, so that would mean 70A of electric to replace. Then there's water heating and other demand.

Of course there are ways around it but I expect many places will need more than 100A supply.

tahir



Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 45038
Location: Essex
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 23 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

jema wrote:
BYD are the dark horse, they will probably be selling more BEVs than Tesla by the end of the year.
They are vertically integrated, producing both their own batteries and their own chips.


Yep, buses, trucks cars, drivetrains, cells. They will be the dominant player

jema
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 23 6:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

Treacodactyl wrote:
tahir wrote:
Treacodactyl wrote:
A bit more digging shows up far more placing stating that realistically many people will need to go 3 phase due to electric demands for heating and EVs.


Not sure why that would be, we have 2 EVs and no issues.


There's plenty of reasons. When I was office based it was common for couples to each travel in excess of 100 miles daily and if we were forced to do that again I'd want two 7kw chargers. All it takes would be a top end electric shower and you're around 100A without considering anything else.

22kw chargers are also mentioned and for future proofing probably worth considering for some.

Hopefully we could get away with a 7kw charger for an EV but with the demonisation of firewood I would need to allow for electric heating. Our fire is 16kw, so that would mean 70A of electric to replace. Then there's water heating and other demand.

Of course there are ways around it but I expect many places will need more than 100A supply.


Why wouldn't 2x3Kw be enough? 12 hours of charging is 36kwh which is in excess of 100 miles range surely?

Treacodactyl
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 23 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

jema wrote:
Why wouldn't 2x3Kw be enough? 12 hours of charging is 36kwh which is in excess of 100 miles range surely?


It depends on the car, I've seen people post up real world numbers of 7 mile range per hour. But I did say in excess of 100 miles, people are often not at home for 12, I would want to make use of E7 electricity etc etc.

Taking another look there's multiple references to 3 pin plug chargers not being safe, I've certainly had problems with electric heaters on 3 pin plugs overheating the plug.

The main thing for me though is virtually everywhere you look now 7kw home chargers seem to be the standard. I doubt anyone designing a house today to use a EV charger would sensibly spec anything less.

And as much of this thread is crystal ball gazing 22kw chargers are out there.

jema
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 27736
Location: escaped from Swindon
PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 23 7:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

Treacodactyl wrote:
jema wrote:
Why wouldn't 2x3Kw be enough? 12 hours of charging is 36kwh which is in excess of 100 miles range surely?


It depends on the car, I've seen people post up real world numbers of 7 mile range per hour. But I did say in excess of 100 miles, people are often not at home for 12, I would want to make use of E7 electricity etc etc.

Taking another look there's multiple references to 3 pin plug chargers not being safe, I've certainly had problems with electric heaters on 3 pin plugs overheating the plug.

The main thing for me though is virtually everywhere you look now 7kw home chargers seem to be the standard. I doubt anyone designing a house today to use a EV charger would sensibly spec anything less.

And as much of this thread is crystal ball gazing 22kw chargers are out there.


8 to 11 miles range is more normal per hour and it's not like you are always charging from empty. Sure you can always look to the outlying cases to find issues, but only by layering on the conditions. 2 cars, long daily mileage on both cars, poor grid, short hours to charge. It might be your truth but it's not many peoples reality.

Treacodactyl
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 23 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

I might be a bit blinkered but probably the opposite to what you think, I expect many more people will have higher demands than what I think.

Not everyone lives in suburbia and has a short drive to work. I'm not just thinking of round here although even my neighbour farmer racks up a large mileage each day driving around to all his fields and animals. My mother, for example, has a cleaner/carer who must drive in excess of 100 miles each day for work and then quite a bit socially. A quick Google shows up plenty of examples of needs, house shares, people with work vans, etc.

To be honest the 3 phase suggestion was a bit of a stretch as it's not something I would have seriously considered but then it makes sense when you think what life might be like in 10 years time. It hasn't occurred to me for example that you can't export large amounts of power to the grid with single phase and if solar panels are improving and were looking to use EVa to export power back then it's something that many may need to think about.

Nicky cigreen



Joined: 25 Jun 2007
Posts: 9470
Location: Devon, uk
PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 23 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

it's got to work on those unusual circumstances times too, not just the average

I mean for me - I don't do 100 miles a day, most days I do 0. But every once in a while I will make a long trip.

3 phase keeps being mentioned.. when I ponder if I could put solar panels on my barn - I get asked if I have 3 phase.. etc. I can tell I have an expensive electrical upgrade in my future.. with wanting solar panels, future EV, and having to heat electric..

tahir



Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 45038
Location: Essex
PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 23 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

We haven't got 3 phase, we have solar panels and 2 EVs.

As needs change so does infrastructure, I asked many years ago about a 3 phase supply here I was told it'd be 100k because it would need a new substation/transformer. I'm pretty sure if demand increased radically then they'd have to upgrade supplies, most households wouldn't see a change as it would be on the public side of the network not the hoseholders.

Nicky cigreen



Joined: 25 Jun 2007
Posts: 9470
Location: Devon, uk
PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 23 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

tahir wrote:
We haven't got 3 phase, we have solar panels and 2 EVs.

As needs change so does infrastructure, I asked many years ago about a 3 phase supply here I was told it'd be 100k because it would need a new substation/transformer. I'm pretty sure if demand increased radically then they'd have to upgrade supplies, most households wouldn't see a change as it would be on the public side of the network not the hoseholders.


hopefully so

For me though, changing to electric heating and putting in a EV charger would undoubtably be the final straw and I will need a new consumer unit at least. I expect this will be the case for many people.

Change is not only hard to do - mostly I find because it isn't obvious what to actually do, but it is also going to be costly. Probably still the right thing to do.

jema
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 27736
Location: escaped from Swindon
PostPosted: Sat Jan 14, 23 6:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

Tesla reduced prices yesterday by about 10% to 20% across the range.
That does not exactly give Teslas accessible pricing.
But it all adds to the downwards pressure on pricing.
Used EV prices had already started to tumble.
My take is that it will be uneven for now with used cars.
They will only go so low for used long range EVs for now as the demand for them is going to be so massive at actually affordable prices.
It's a bit of a killer blow for ICE though.

Mistress Rose



Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 14637

PostPosted: Sat Jan 14, 23 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

Tahir, so far they haven't upgraded supplies more than is needed at that precise moment. If everyone in a road with houses both sides got EVs the electricity supply is unlikely to stand it. Yes, it will get upgraded, but I have a feeling judging by history of electricity supply, drainage, sewage etc. that it will only happen when the situation is forced. As most of the utilities are not in private hands, and the example of the companies responsible for sewage is not exactly exemplary, that could need government legislation.

Jema, if the price of used EVs is going to rise, think what will happen to the price of used ICE cars as long as fuel is available.

Yes, EVs may well be the future, but equally so could something else that is carbon neutral to run.

jema
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Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 27736
Location: escaped from Swindon
PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 23 6:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

Mistress Rose wrote:

Jema, if the price of used EVs is going to rise, think what will happen to the price of used ICE cars as long as fuel is available.
.


I just said the price of used EVs is falling, due in part to Teslas price cuts.

As for grids not coping I already posted links to the UK grid where they say they can cope.

Mistress Rose



Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 14637

PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 23 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
    

Overall the grid can cope. Whether the local infrastructure can is another matter. Where you and we are is probably not a problem, but some cities are still relying on their 1930s supply in some parts and they are already pushed to the limit. It is certainly not impossible to upgrade, but takes money and political willpower. There are already certain taxi drivers who are getting EVs, as encouraged by their councils, who are unable to get charging points installed at home because their supply won't stand it. In city streets that are cars both sides of the road, and people often have to park several streets from home, the logistics of getting EVs to charging points along the road will be a nightmare. There are several things that will help; making companies have parking areas for their works vans where they can be charged overnight rather than expecting their employees to take them home for instance, but that will need again, money and political willpower.

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